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Question #51953
The Question
A number is chosen at random from the set . Let , , and be the events that is divisible by 2, 3, and 19, respectively. A diagnostic test is performed on according to the following rules: \begin{itemize} \item If , the test yields a positive result with probability . \item If and , the test yields a positive result with probability . \item If and , the test yields a positive result with probability . \end{itemize} Given that the test yields a positive result, what is the probability that is NOT divisible by any of 2, 3, or 19?
Options
- A.
- B.
- C.
- D.
Check Your Answer
Correct Answer
Step-by-Step Solution
Explanation
How the Examiner Thinks
Bridge
Practice problems that bridge the gap between foundational theory and advanced practical application.
Concepts Behind This Question
Cardinality Inclusion-Exclusion|De Morgan’s Laws in Probability|Bayes' Theorem Reversal
Why This Question Is Tricky
Examiner Levers
Negative Thinking
Uses "NOT", "EXCEPT", or "INCORRECT" to flip the logic gate.
Difficulty Boost : +2Extraneous Data
Provides unnecessary variables (Red Herrings) to test conceptual focus.
Difficulty Boost : +3Common Mistakes
This question tests the student's ability to synthesize Cardinality Inclusion-Exclusion, De Morgan's Laws, and Bayes' Theorem while navigating a restricted sample space trap.
The 'Lethal Collision' occurs when students must calculate the exact cardinalities of overlapping subsets (divisibility by 2, 3, and 19) to form the priors for Bayes' Theorem.
A common trap is failing to properly exclude the intersection of event C from the complement space , leading to an incorrect partition size (using 121 instead of 114).
Furthermore, the use of De Morgan's Law is required to efficiently find the cardinality of the 'neither' condition, punishing brute-force counting methods.
Quick Facts About This Question
Question Information
| Subject | Mathematics |
| Chapter | Sets - Class 11 |
| Concept | Cardinality Inclusion-Exclusion |
| Difficulty | 8 |
| Cognitive Load | 7 |
| Target Solve Time | 170 sec |
| Access | Free |