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Question #51953

Difficulty: 8/10 | 🟢 Free

The Question

A number xx is chosen at random from the set S={1,2,…,361}S = \{1, 2, \dots, 361\}. Let AA, BB, and CC be the events that xx is divisible by 2, 3, and 19, respectively. A diagnostic test is performed on xx according to the following rules: \begin{itemize} \item If x∈Cx \in C, the test yields a positive result with probability 1019\frac{10}{19}. \item If x∉Cx \notin C and x∈Ac∩Bcx \in A^c \cap B^c, the test yields a positive result with probability 519\frac{5}{19}. \item If x∉Cx \notin C and x∉Ac∩Bcx \notin A^c \cap B^c, the test yields a positive result with probability 719\frac{7}{19}. \end{itemize} Given that the test yields a positive result, what is the probability that xx is NOT divisible by any of 2, 3, or 19?

Options

  • A.

    1562\frac{15}{62}

  • B.

    2131\frac{21}{31}

  • C.

    519\frac{5}{19}

  • D.

    30361\frac{30}{361}

Check Your Answer

Correct Answer

Step-by-Step Solution

Explanation

How the Examiner Thinks

Bridge

Practice problems that bridge the gap between foundational theory and advanced practical application.

Concepts Behind This Question

Cardinality Inclusion-Exclusion|De Morgan’s Laws in Probability|Bayes' Theorem Reversal

Why This Question Is Tricky

Examiner Levers

Negative Thinking

Uses "NOT", "EXCEPT", or "INCORRECT" to flip the logic gate.

Difficulty Boost : +2

Extraneous Data

Provides unnecessary variables (Red Herrings) to test conceptual focus.

Difficulty Boost : +3

Common Mistakes

This question tests the student's ability to synthesize Cardinality Inclusion-Exclusion, De Morgan's Laws, and Bayes' Theorem while navigating a restricted sample space trap.

The 'Lethal Collision' occurs when students must calculate the exact cardinalities of overlapping subsets (divisibility by 2, 3, and 19) to form the priors for Bayes' Theorem.

A common trap is failing to properly exclude the intersection of event C from the complement space Ac∩BcA^c \cap B^c, leading to an incorrect partition size (using 121 instead of 114).

Furthermore, the use of De Morgan's Law is required to efficiently find the cardinality of the 'neither' condition, punishing brute-force counting methods.

Quick Facts About This Question

Question Information

SubjectMathematics
ChapterSets - Class 11
ConceptCardinality Inclusion-Exclusion
Difficulty8
Cognitive Load7
Target Solve Time170 sec
AccessFree